Some topics earn views for years; some earn for a week. Both are valuable, but they need different packaging, different timing and different expectations. The Evergreen vs Trending Scorer places a topic on that axis with an evergreen score, a spike probability, a twelve-month trajectory and a recommendation: publish now, wait, or reframe as evergreen.
This guide explains the two curves, how the recommendation is derived, and how to hold a healthy mix.
Two curves
Evergreen topics have flat or slowly rising search interest — how-to, fundamentals, comparisons of durable products. They start slow and compound. Trending topics spike and decay — news, launches, challenges, seasonal events. They start fast and fade. The scorer reads signals from search patterns, content velocity and topic type to estimate which curve a topic follows and how steeply.
The recommendation
Publish now: the topic is spiking and the window is open, or it is evergreen and there is no reason to wait. Wait: the topic is seasonal and the peak is more than eight weeks away — publish four to six weeks before. Evergreen reframe: the topic is trending but has a durable core; package it for the long tail ("what the X launch means for beginners" rather than "X launched today").
A healthy mix
Roughly two evergreen videos for every trending one. Evergreen builds the catalogue that earns while you sleep; trending brings bursts of new viewers who discover the catalogue. Channels that are all-trending have no floor; channels that are all-evergreen grow slowly.
Tips
- Score every idea before it goes on the calendar; it takes seconds and sets expectations.
- For a trending topic, publish the trending version as a Short and the evergreen reframe as long-form.
- Revisit evergreen videos yearly with an updated title ("2026") — they keep earning.
Common mistakes
- Expecting evergreen videos to pop in week one — They are slow by nature; judge at 90 days.
- Publishing a seasonal topic at the peak — Too late to rank; four to six weeks early.
- Ignoring the reframe option — It is often the best of both.
Worked example
Input: "New Gaggia Classic Evo Pro launch"
What the report returned: Evergreen 34, spike probability 88, trajectory: peak in 2–3 weeks, tail decays 80% by month 4. Recommendation: publish now as a first-look Short plus an evergreen reframe — "Gaggia Classic Evo Pro: Should Beginners Buy It or the Old Model?" — which holds search for years.
Frequently asked questions
What is evergreen content?
Topics with stable, long-lasting search interest that keep earning views for years — fundamentals, how-tos, durable comparisons.
Should I avoid trending topics?
No — they bring discovery. Keep them to about a third of uploads and reframe when possible.
How accurate is the 12-month trajectory?
Directionally reliable; the shape of the curve is more dependable than exact values.
Is this the same as the Trending Keyword Finder?
No — that finds what is trending. This scores whether a specific topic will last.